Sunday, June 23, 2013

Why Indian Rupee falling down? Part 2

Click here to read first part
     Planning experts say that the foreign currency expense of India is mostly going to the way of gold and unrefined oil.  But, according to statistics, import of commodities, even that are abundantly available in India, is in increasing mode at present.  Import of fertilizer increased approximately 30% in a span of last two years.  This year, there is expectation that the monsoon will be in favour and which will lead the fertilizer import to further increasing.  Import of coal, a commodity which is also abundantly available in India, multiplied twice in the last couple of years.  When this also added to the figure of import increasing on gold and oil, foreign trade deficit collectively increased 6.7% of total internal production of the country.  This creates a big threat to the value of Rupee as well as the entire Indian economy.

     India has invested billions of rupees in the production of fertilizers for the last many decades.  Yet, a country, widely depending agriculture for its motion, always needed waiting the import for its fertilizer needs indicates the flaw in its planning.  The matter of coal is also same.  It is a commodity abundantly available in India and up to the recent times there had been coal export also from India.  From this level, India reached to a position that needed import for its coal needs, which is also indicating the flaw in its planning.

     Although all these factors will create a circumstance that would lead to declining the value of Rupee, in May, the steep slide of rupee in spite of the net surplus of 240 Cr Dollar raises serious concerns over the issue.  This speaks clearly that there is fundamental weakness in the management of foreign currency.

     There are mainly two types of flaws in foreign currency management of India. One is India attracted investments of foreign institutionalized investors (FII) rather than that of foreign direct investments (FDI).  Direct foreign investment is spent for the productive activities in an economy.  In the meantime, the investments of FIIs are deposited in share markets as well as in credit bonds. These investments may be withdrawn at any time.

     As a result, though India has vaulted foreign currency of approximately 30,000 Cr Dollar, it cannot spent that money bravely because the investors may withdraw those investments with profit at any time. FIIs are frequently putting forward this need and which leads to declining the value of Rupee without any worthy reasons. 

     One more thing happening in Indian economy is that the uncontrolled money borrowing from abroad.   The interest rate for the loan from abroad is as limited as 1 to 2 percentages while in India it will reach as high as 14 to 15 percentages.  Therefore, the loan from abroad is much profitable for the industrialists.  In recent times, central government allowed industrialists to take loans up to 70 Cr Dollar under certain criteria.  A number of industrialists utilized this opportunity as well. 

     But, the repayment of loans must be in foreign currencies and that money they have to find from Indian money markets.  When industrialists accumulate money from Indian markets for the repayments, the demand of Dollar is getting increased further and which will cause the decline the value of Rupee.  That means, although the loans from abroad are very useful for the industrialists, the burden is always falling upon the common people as well as Indian economy.   When the fact is that the foreign loans are the main reason for the steep slide of Rupee for the last four years, the matter is discreetly hidden from the public always.  Buying Dollar for the repayment of loans, as far as the industrialists are concerned, will end up to huge loss in present situation.  Therefore most of the industrialists are busy in seeking new loans for the repayment and which will lead to further crisis for Indian Rupee.

Why Indian rupee falling down? Part 1


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